The future of workthe future of WorkThe economists tell us that technology is a substitute for some forms of human capital and a complement to others. However, many of these jobs can now be done at less expense by machines, or by lower-paid workers in poorer countries like China and India. What do these trends mean for the future of work in america? are there any jobs safe from mechanization and outsourcing? if part of rising inequality is a function of the match between technology and human capital, and wanted them to get ahead, what is America’s comparative advantage? If you had a child tomorrow, what would you want them to pick as their college major eighteen years from now?Richard Florida, what can be done to ensure that more people develop the right kind of capital? In a changing global economy, author of the bestselling Rise of the Creative Class, leads off with an essay emphasizing the importance of encouraging creativity.
Tens of millions of americans used to make, and many still do make, a good living in low- and medium-skilled assembly line jobs. Replying to florida over the following week and a half will be: george mason economist and futurist robin Hanson, author of a much-circulated review pdf of Thomas Friedman's The World Is Flat; and MIT's Frank Levy, an expert on robot economics pdf; UCLA economist Edward Leamer, co-author of The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the New Job Market.
. As the pace of technological advance continues to quicken, and the world economy becomes ever more integrated, the “information age” evolves into something new, the most economically valued set of human skills and a capabilities continues to shift rapidly. At the same time, the return on investment in education continues to rise, widening the gap in pay between workers with college degrees and workers without them.
What's Wrong with Expert Predictions? Cato Unbound Book 72011
Tetlock, suggest a few ways that the experts might still be able to improve. Experts must love making predictions. Once we grasp that the experts aren't so reliable at predicting the future, of course, a question arises immediately: How can we do better? Some events will always be unpredictable, but this month's lead authors, Dan Gardner and Philip E.
Each will offer a commentary on Gardner and Tetlock’s essay, followed by a discussion among the panelists lasting through the end of the month. Cochrane, and political scientist Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. To discuss with them, we've invited economist and futurologist Robin Hanson of George Mason University, Professor of Finance and Cato Adjunct Scholar John H.
. This applies to many realms of human activity, but above all to politics, and the subject of expert political judgment forms this month's theme at Cato Unbound. They keep right on predicting, even though by any reasonable standard, they're terrible at it. Many of them, though intelligent and well-informed, nonetheless have difficulty even beating a random guess about future events—or, if you will, beating the proverbial dart-throwing chimp.
The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everyday Life
In fact, these institutions are in many ways designed to accommodate our hidden motives, to serve covert agendas alongside their "official" ones. The existence of big hidden motives can upend the usual political debates, leading one to question the legitimacy of these social institutions, and of standard policies designed to favor or discourage them.
The aim of this book, then, is to confront our hidden motives directly - to track down the darker, unexamined corners of our psyches and blast them with floodlights. But while we may be self-interested schemers, we benefit by pretending otherwise. The less we know about our own ugly motives, the better - and thus we don't like to talk or even think about the extent of our selfishness.
. Our brains, therefore, are designed not just to hunt and gather, but also to help us get ahead socially, often via deception and self-deception. Human beings are primates, and primates are political animals. This is "the elephant in the brain. Such an introspective taboo makes it hard for us to think clearly about our nature and the explanations for our behavior.
You won't see yourself - or the world - the same after confronting the elephant in the brain. Then, medicine, school, politics, we can work to better understand ourselves: why do we laugh? Why are artists sexy? Why do we brag about travel? Why do we prefer to speak rather than listen?Our unconscious motives drive more than just our private behavior; they also infect our venerated social institutions such as Art, Charity, once everything is clearly visible, and Religion.
The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate
The original debate took place in a long series of blog posts, which are collected here. This book also includes a transcript of a 2011 in-person debate between Hanson and Yudkowsky on this subject, a summary of the debate written by Kaj Sotala, and a 2013 technical report on AI takeoff dynamics “intelligence explosion microeconomics” written by Yudkowsky.
. In late 2008, economist robin hanson and ai theorist eliezer Yudkowsky conducted an online debate about the future of artificial intelligence, and in particular about whether generally intelligent AIs will be able to improve their own capabilities very quickly a. K. A. Foom”.
Inadequate Equilibria: Where and How Civilizations Get Stuck
Freely mixing debates on the foundations of rational decision-making with tips for everyday life, Yudkowsky explores the central question of when we can and can’t expect to spot systemic inefficiencies, and exploit them. When should you think that you may be able to do something unusually well?Whether you’re trying to outperform in science, or just in finding good deals on eBay, or in business, it’s important that you have a sober understanding of your relative competencies.
The story only ends there, however, if you’re fortunate enough to live in an adequate civilization. Eliezer yudkowsky’s inadequate equilibria is a sharp and lively guidebook for anyone questioning when and how they can know better, and do better, than the status quo.